ACEIZE Tracking the current state of Science and Technology

Given that the Chinese have demonstrated the capability to obliterate satellites in low earth orbit, what does this mean for US military capabilities?

What do we know from publicly available sources?

1. The Chinese have blown up a satelitte in low earth orbit. Low Earth Orbit being commonly defined as 200 - 2000 km above the earth.
2. In the fall of 2006 the Chinese succeeded in illuminating a US satelitte with a laser. This was known by US intelligence agencies.
3. The Project for the New American Century stated in their 2000 defense review that one important objective for the US should be the 'control of space and cyberspace'. This document has been followed extensively by the Bush administration and the military over the last 7 years. There is no reason to suspect that the US military would have slacked on 'control of space' while completing all other objectives. And in fact there is evidence to support that the US has publicly attempted to push forward with the 'control of space' objective by organizing of the US Space Corps, as a division of the US Air Force. To my knowledge this plan did not go forward publicly or directly.
4. The US has launched at least two classified military satellites since December, 2006.

I think there is evidence to suggest that the US has for sometime been aware that our satelitte assets were under possible threat from foreign nations. Further, the US has had an opportunity to launch satellites that could withstand or avoid an earth based attack. Certainly, satellites that sit in low earth orbit are under threat from attack. However, I know of no information stating that the Chinese are capable of attacking satellites higher than that. I would bet that the US military has satellites above the low earth orbit. I would further assume that US military satellites that have launched since 2003 (when earth based anti-satelitte weapons were first discussed according to the sfgate article) have added some sort of anti-satelitte ability - be it laser guidance scrambling or maneuvering thrusters.

What I think is exceedingly strange about the Chinese ASAT is how much it plays into the Bush administration's stated budgeting objectives. By blowing up a satelitte publicly, the Chinese have virtually assured that the US will spend more money on protecting it's space assets. This may make the US Space Corps (or at least a major increase in spending for the Air Force Space Command) viable in the next budgeting cycle.

I think that if the US military has acted responsibly, by examining threats and reacting, then US satellites are not in a position of being fish in a barrel. I believe that the US military would have acted responsibly to this potential threat, seeing as they overbuild against almost any threat. However, some of the satelitte technology in use by the US is definitely vulnerable to attack. How much of that technology is civilian and military I do not know. In the next year I expect that we will see the US dramatically increase funding for satelitte defense, thereby narrowing the gap of satelitte vulnerability.